"If the Federal Council is now considering abolishing the program — or at least withdrawing the federal contribution — it is mainly because of the windfall effects it generates," explains Philippe Thalmann, professor of environmental economics at EPFL.
"Today, 70% of our results come from abroad, while 70% of our investments are made in our historic service territory in Switzerland," says Cédric Christmann, Chief Executive Officer of Primeo Energie.
Energy future: Ideas and solutions for managing the challenges posed by the seasons
Commissioned by the Association of Swiss Electric Companies, a study recalls the challenges as well as the solutions available to Switzerland to ensure the long-term viability of its energy system.
"Due to increased electricity needs and the planned gradual closure of nuclear power plants, the 2040s will experience shortages during the winter semester, which the development of renewable energies throughout the year, as prescribed by the law for electricity, will not be able to fully make up for," the study notes. DR
What efforts will Switzerland have to make to achieve the goal of net-zero emissions while ensuring its electricity supply by 2050? This is the central question that the Association of Swiss Electricity Companies (AES) attempts to answer in a study entitled "Energy Future 2050". Given the rapid evolution of the political and economic context, an update of the first version, published in 2022, had become indispensable.
Evolution of total electricity consumption in Switzerland from today (REF) to 2050, broken down by consumption segment (e.g. e-mobility) and type of consumption (national and final). @AES
Still in collaboration with the Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa), the AES has just presented an update incorporating the most recent data and statistics. This research work pursues a dual objective: to analyze the impacts of current regulations and political developments on the Swiss energy system. "We wanted to objectify the discussions on energy policy and highlight the challenges as well as the solutions of tomorrow," says Martin Schwab, president of the AES.
The essentials of this study in three key points:
1️⃣
The winter challenge : Energy supply during the winter season will continue to be the main challenge for Switzerland in the years to come. "Due to increased electricity needs and the planned progressive shutdown of nuclear power plants, the 2040s will experience shortages during the winter half-year, which the year-round development of renewables, as prescribed by the Electricity Act, will not be able to fully cover," the study specifies.
Several solutions to fill future shortfalls are analyzed, including an increase in wind energy, increased imports (beyond the limits provided by the Electricity Act), the construction and operation of gas-fired power plants, as well as the long-term extension of existing nuclear plants (Gösgen, Leibstadt). "From a systemic point of view, wind appears to be the solution to favour. In this scenario, the model calculates the optimal mix between photovoltaics and wind. These technologies complement each other and their production curves are almost complementary," state the authors of the report.
In recent months, various statements in the press confirm that the gas option is being seriously considered. "Gas-fired plants offer an effective solution to balance supply and demand at all times, while providing great flexibility. Their commissioning can be completed within a few years if necessary," explained Michael Beer, Head of Markets and Regulation at BKW, in an interview on SwissPowerShift.
Summary of (additional) complementary renewable energy production as well as the import balance aiming to cover national electricity consumption in the "Electricity Act with electricity agreement" scenario and for the four variants studied "gas", "LTO", "more imports" and "more wind". @AES
2️⃣
Summer surpluses: Unlike the winter situation, considerable electricity surpluses are produced each summer. "We must find ways to make use of them in the interest of the system as a whole," explain the AES experts. This implies, unsurprisingly, resorting to long-term storage solutions, as well as additional short-term curtailment measures to relieve the networks.
"The different types of storage and flexibility must be coordinated optimally, in summer as in winter," reads the report, which also mentions the hydrogen route, potentially produced at a competitive cost during the summer. With a caveat, however: uncertainty about the profitability of hydrogen production and transport infrastructures.
3️⃣
Grid adaptation : The development and decentralization of electricity production, as well as the decarbonization of mobility, heating and industry, exert increasing pressure on the grids and require significant investments. Currently estimated at about 4 billion francs per year, annual expenditures could reach around 9 billion by 2050. Several solutions exist to limit this sharp increase in costs.
This starts with a limitation of injection ("peak shaving") to 3% of the annual production of PV installations connected to the grid. "If this measure is implemented statically, that is by limiting the injection of installations to a fixed percentage of their installed capacity (for example 70%), grid costs would amount to about 6.9 billion francs per year by 2050, or 2 billion francs per year less than without this possibility (8.9 billion francs per year)," the report specifies.
While unfortunately unable to quantify its impact precisely, due to insufficient research, the AES mentions other avenues, such as a better orientation of PV installations to increase electricity production in winter, dynamic pricing, demand-side management (DSM), as well as smarter network control. The potential of home batteries, notably those integrated into electric cars (Vehicle-to-Home/Vehicle-to-Grid), is also briefly mentioned in the report.
Evolution of annualized network costs by network level (NR) for the current period (REF) and for 2050 in the "Electricity Act with electricity agreement" ("integrated") scenario 1) without PV injection limitation (peak shaving), 2) with static PV injection limitation and 3) with dynamic PV injection limitation at the prosumer "behind-the-meter" level. @AES
Fully playing its role as defender of the sector, the AES takes advantage of this new report to remind that future supply security will depend largely on the implementation of the Electricity Act and the conclusion of an electricity agreement with Europe. "An electricity agreement would not only stabilize supply in Switzerland, but also reduce costs, notably those related to system services, while reducing the need for electricity reserves in the country," state the authors of the study.
Cross-border capacity (NTC) available and used for transit and net (Swiss) imports/exports for 2050 in the "Electricity Act with electricity agreement" ("integrated") and "Electricity Act without electricity agreement" ("isolated") scenarios. @AES
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"If the Federal Council is now considering abolishing the program — or at least withdrawing the federal contribution — it is mainly because of the windfall effects it generates," explains Philippe Thalmann, professor of environmental economics at EPFL.
"Today, 70% of our results come from abroad, while 70% of our investments are made in our historic service territory in Switzerland," says Cédric Christmann, Chief Executive Officer of Primeo Energie.
