What return to nuclear power are we talking about?

The political offensive for a return to nuclear power is therefore launched. Federal Councillor Albert Rösti, favourable to this form of energy, is working on an indirect counter-project to the initiative that seeks to lift the ban on building  new nuclear power plants. And for the first time, it is not the electricity companies that are at the helm. The country's major power companies have until now been almost silent and, to be frank, very reluctant to reopen the debate on the atom. They know that the file is weighed down by costs, discredited by the French fiasco and undermined by the uncertainty regarding the choice of the different technologies available.

With the exception of the UDC, which would be in favour of a 3rd-generation plant, namely an EPR (pressurised water reactor) like those built at Flamanville or Olkiluoto, the PLR and the initiators speak of “new generation” reactors. Are they referring to thorium reactors, an abundant ore that produces less waste while being considerably less dangerous in the event of an accident (the meltdown of the reactor core being intrinsically excluded with thorium), or are they thinking of so-called Generation IV, i.e. a fast breeder whose some variants theoretically allow burning existing nuclear waste while transmuting it into residues much less dangerous than those envisaged to be stored permanently in caverns? Or are they alluding to an even greater ambition: nuclear fusion? A process that would reproduce on Earth the physico-chemical reaction that takes place at the heart of our sun.

What are the options?

Let us review the options. A Swiss thorium reactor?  In the medium term, the completion of such a project is highly unlikely. With the exception of China, there is currently no experimental project ready to be commercialised any time soon. As for Generation IV, it is hard to see Switzerland embarking on the commercial development of a type of reactor whose most famous example, Superphénix, built at Creys-Malville, has been in a dismantling phase since 1997 after a long series of incidents and delays!

A Swiss thorium reactor?  In the medium term, the completion of such a project is highly unlikely. With the exception of China, there is currently no experimental project ready to be commercialised any time soon.

 Fusion? The option is conceivable in the very long term.  According to a recent German report, the development of this new sector will still take several decades and will only reach maturity, at best, towards the end of the century, “too late to play a decisive role in the fight against global warming” which requires clean energy in massive quantities now and not in a distant future, write the German scientists.

So remains the option of 3rd generation, the EPR and its Chinese, Russian, Korean or American equivalents. According to the bank Lazard, which regularly updates the price of energy technologies, the cost of production of the EPR nuclear sits between 14 and 22 cents per kWh. To ensure the profitability of such an investment (under 2024 market conditions), the Confederation would have to guarantee any new operator a subsidy on the order of 10 to 18 cents per kWh, i.e. between 1.3 and 1.8 billion francs per year for a plant with a capacity of 1,600 MW and an annual production of 13 TWh. Will smaller EPR reactors, known under the acronym SMR, change the orders of magnitude? One can doubt it. Admittedly, the redeployment of nuclear compares to the average subsidies paid for the development of renewable energies, around 10 to 14 cents per kWh. With the difference that the costs of solar and wind are steadily falling, which is not the case for the atom.   

By what means?

In fact, the additional cents collected on the electricity bill would be largely insufficient to finance nuclear and other clean energies. It would probably be necessary to double the levies and accept a substantial increase in the electricity bill for households and industry. Are the PLR and the UDC willing to defend this before the people? Or are they ready to siphon off the funds paid for solar and wind, thereby signing the end of those two sectors? Not easy to answer this dilemma.

In plain terms, nuclear remains an expensive energy, potentially dangerous (at least for 3rd-generation EPR-type reactors) and it does not solve the long-term waste problem. One certainty: the first thorium or Generation IV plants will have very high operating costs at the start, probably much higher than the EPRs which have benefited from massive investments over the past 30 years. 

Switzerland, too small to launch into uncertain and very risky technological developments, could therefore have to choose between renewables and classic nuclear, hungry for subsidies.  Unless one imagines ordering 3rd-generation or futuristic reactors at low cost from… China or Russia.

The share of nuclear?

Absent a major technological breakthrough, the atom will remain a backup energy and not a dominant one. Banning it is not a solution; considering it as an economic solution is an illusion.

The return to growth of nuclear energy (currently in decline) nevertheless remains probable and likely necessary by the end of the 21st century, notably to produce the mass of energy that will be required to completely replace fossil fuels and stabilise the climate by removing excess CO2 from the atmosphere. But that nuclear will only reach commercial maturity around the middle of the century and will still require much research before it can impose itself both scientifically and economically. At best, installed nuclear capacity should not increase by more than 30% by 2050 according to various scenarios whereas renewable energies, for their part, will have doubled by the end of this… decade. Absent a major technological breakthrough, the atom will remain a backup and not dominant energy. Banning it is not a solution; considering it as an economic solution is an illusion.

This column also appeared in the pages of 24 Heures and Tribune de Genève.

This article has been automatically translated using AI. If you notice any errors, please don't hesitate to contact us.