The electric truck, a myth that is gradually becoming a reality

October 2022 was a cold shock! After a month-long trial, Trevor Milton was found guilty of having lied and embellished the situation of his company. The disgrace of the founder and head of Nikola could have been costly for a mobility sector as essential as private cars: electric trucks. But fortunately, that was not the case.

Unlike the currently depressed sales of petrol-free cars, those of battery-powered commercial vehicles are accelerating. This finding comes from a recent report by Bloomberg NEF (BNEF) aimed at taking stock of the market. To do so, the agency’s experts took into account multiple factors such as profitability, sales numbers, adoption rates, support policies, and manufacturers’ strategies.

Wave of new models

First observation: the scale of the wave is only in its infancy and could quickly resemble a tsunami. To meet rising demand, the whole sector is mobilizing. Mercedes-Benz, Daimler Truck, Volvo Trucks, Renault Trucks, Iveco (in Italy) and even younger brands like Tesla are in the process of or preparing to flood the market with new models.

“the truck industry is experiencing an incredible phase of technological disruption,” explains Louis-Pierre Geffray, mobility expert at the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri).

“Four or five years ago, there were still big doubts about the future of the electric truck. That’s over. In 2025, the first 44-ton models with 600 kilometers of real range will arrive on the market, something no one would have bet on three months ago. This acceleration makes the dominance of electric trucks inevitable,” explains Louis-Pierre Geffray in the pages of Le Monde. 

For this mobility expert at the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri), the truck industry is “experiencing an incredible phase of technological disruption,” a phase reinforced by a favorable shift in the profitability of electric trucks.

The fall in the prices of metals used in battery assembly, the use of cheaper chemicals like lithium iron phosphate (LFP), and the increase in orders are pushing vehicle prices down.

Now, to be perfectly honest: an electric truck remains more expensive than its diesel counterpart, but the scales are balancing. “Despite the savings generated by the lower price of electricity, the total cost of ownership should remain around 20% to 30% higher than diesel for a few more years,” says Denis Benita, transport engineer at the French Agency for Ecological Transition (Ademe).

Electric dethrones hydrogen

The other major market development represents a paradigm shift between the electric truck and the one running on a fuel cell (hydrogen). The weak sales of the hydrogen version have pushed major manufacturers to hit the brakes. “The vast majority of clean heavy goods vehicles sold are electric, with fuel cell trucks occupying only a small part of the market. It is still early, but electric powertrains have already taken a considerable lead in the race,” say the BNEF analysts.

“For local traffic, that is to say for regional road transport from our distribution centers or hubs for combined transport, the advantages of battery trucks currently predominate,” explains Thomas Ditzler, spokesperson for Coop.

They justify this decline by the hydrogen trucks’ too-narrow window of competitiveness compared to diesel or battery vehicles. “They require very low hydrogen costs (around $5 per kilogram) to match high diesel prices and average electricity prices.”

In Switzerland, where major retailers were a few years ago proudly presenting their new hydrogen trucks, the shift looks similar. Coop, which currently uses 7 fuel cell trucks and 6 electric propulsion trucks, mentions the commissioning of new… electric models in 2025.

The Swiss retail giant is, however, not as categorical as others. “For local traffic, that is to say for regional road transport from our distribution centers or hubs for combined transport, the advantages of battery trucks currently predominate. However, for longer journeys intended for interregional and national transport, we continue to see the potential of hydrogen trucks,” replies Thomas Ditzler, the chain’s spokesperson.

As for biofuels, even though Coop still defends this solution, they could quickly be shelved as transitional remedies. “If one drop of liquid fuel must remain, it will be taken by aviation and maritime,” predicts Denis Benita.

Still a long road

Even if business is accelerating, it must be added that the electrification of commercial mobility is far from a done deal. Expect a long and slow transition. As proof, in the second quarter of this year, electric (and fuel cell) vehicles accounted for just under 2% of global heavy truck sales. The margin for progress therefore remains phenomenal.

The reluctance of some to make this transition results from several factors. If we have already mentioned the issue of high purchase cost, we must also highlight the glaring lack of charging infrastructure. In France, a study published in March 2024 cites a need for more than 12,000 charging stations necessary for heavy trucks. Today, France has only a few dozen.

However, there is a solution to make up for the lack of infrastructure. Initially imagined by Elon Musk for the Tesla brand (an idea quickly abandoned), battery swapping is making a big comeback. At least that is the case in China where half of the trucks sold this year are capable of swapping batteries in addition to standard fast DC charging. “While battery swapping is struggling to establish itself in other markets, China is succeeding,” reads the Bloomberg NEF report. Already the world leader in electric trucks, this option should keep the Middle Kingdom in pole position given Beijing’s ambitions to achieve zero CO₂-emission road transport.

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