The commissioning of a new nuclear power plant before 2050 is improbable

The debate over nuclear power continues in Switzerland, and attitudes are changing rapidly, as demonstrated by a recent AES poll, carried out by the gfs.bern institute. For the first time in many years, a narrow majority of citizens (56%) declare themselves in favor, or rather in favor, of considering the construction of new nuclear power plants.

In Switzerland, as elsewhere, the atom is again perceived by some as a kind of Holy Grail: the miracle solution to decarbonize our energy supply, complementing the development of renewable energies. But is this path really conceivable in a country that has officially decided to turn the page on nuclear power once its last plant is permanently closed?

In a report published a few days ago, the Energy Commission of the Swiss Academies of Sciences wanted to (re)lay the foundations of the debate, in order to assess whether nuclear power can truly constitute a serious option for Switzerland in its transition to carbon neutrality. "It provides policymakers and industry actors as well as the general public with evidence-based information, to allow as rational a debate as possible," the document emphasizes.

Here are the three key points to take away from this report, led by Urs Neu, president of the extended Energy Commission of the Swiss Academies of Sciences.

1️⃣

Long political path : At this stage, Switzerland remains in a situation where the people voted in favor of phasing out nuclear power. The first step toward a possible reconsideration of the ban on building new plants will be played out at the ballot box, on the occasion of the vote on the "Stop the blackout" initiative or on the indirect counter-proposal.

If this ban were to be lifted, a law on financing would still have to be adopted, and then long discussions would have to be held to designate an operator, obtain the general authorizations, as well as the construction and operating permits. Each stage is uncertain and subject to delays, because they depend as much on political and economic factors as on technological considerations.

Finally, imagining that all political obstacles are lifted and that Switzerland actually begins the construction of a new plant, one would still have to wait — at minimum — about ten years before it enters service. "The commissioning of a new nuclear power plant before 2050 is unlikely," the researchers assert. This time perspective reduces to nothing the hopes of those who count on nuclear power to make Switzerland a carbon-neutral country by mid-century.

2️⃣

Technological evolution : In their report, the researchers detailed the latest technological advances in the field of nuclear energy, in order to provide a comprehensive view of the issue. As we mentioned in a previous article, two radically different models are competing today.

On the one hand, high-power reactors rely on centralized production, with units of about 1,600 MW. On the other hand, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), more recent designs, offer an electrical capacity between 10 MW and 300 MW. A few SMR prototypes are currently being tested in Russia and China. Others are under development in Argentina, Canada, South Korea and the United States, where more than 80 units are intended for commercial use.

Whether for SMRs or large plants, the current issue is their technology. The vast majority of the four hundred and fifteen civil reactors in operation worldwide are generations I to III and cooled by water. If the new generation, called III/III+, also relies on water, it is distinguished by passive safety systems that do not depend on an external power supply nor on human intervention.

Swiss slowness could nevertheless turn into an asset, allowing Switzerland to jump directly to generation IV. This new generation of reactors no longer uses conventional water cooling, but relies on gases, liquid metals such as lead or sodium, or molten salts. These technologies promise "to increase efficiency while markedly improving the safety of installations, because these reactors operate at much lower pressure and greatly reduce the production of highly radioactive waste." However, somewhat similarly to the attractive promises of nuclear fusion, these advances remain still very hypothetical at this stage of research.

3️⃣

Financial challenge : Whether it's a generation III/III+ plant, SMRs or another technology to come, one of the major challenges of constructing a new reactor remains financing. International examples are unequivocal: today, the construction of a new nuclear power plant depends on heavy public subsidies. "It would take years, even decades, before new nuclear power plants could be operated economically viably in Switzerland," Stefan Klute, head of the nuclear sector at BKW, reminded on SwissPowerShift.

The report also states that Switzerland would inevitably have to turn abroad for a possible new installation. "The industrial base necessary for the construction of new nuclear power plants has contracted sharply in Europe," the authors point out. The few actors still capable of carrying out such a project are now in France, the United States, South Korea, Japan, and possibly China. "Most companies currently proposing new nuclear reactors have faced or are facing major financial difficulties and/or are under state control," the scientists of the Energy Commission of the Swiss Academies of Sciences remind.

The financial challenge would be all the more complex in an energy mix increasingly focused on renewable energies. "The electricity market will mostly need flexible installations for production, storage and consumption, in order to guarantee a stable supply," the report indicates. It also specifies that in summer, due to the rise of photovoltaics, a new plant could find itself forced to pay to inject its electricity onto the grid.

This article has been automatically translated using AI. If you notice any errors, please don't hesitate to contact us.

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